The title question came up recently, which I think makes for an interesting combinatorics exercise. The idea is that, given the extent of “borrowing” of past musical ideas by later artists, are we in danger of running out of new music?
We can turn this into a combinatorics problem by focusing solely on pitch and rhythm: in a single bar of music, how many possible melodies are there, consisting of a sequence of notes and rests of varying pitch and duration? The point is that this number is finite; it may be astronomical, but how astronomical?
This is not a new question, and there are plenty of answers out there which make various simplifying assumptions. For example, Vsauce has a video, “Will We Ever Run Out of New Music?,” which in turn refers to a write-up, “How many melodies are there in the universe?,” describing a calculation based on a recurrence relation that effectively requires cutting segments of a bar exactly in halves– undercounting in a way that I suspect was not intentional, implicitly prohibiting even relatively simple melodies like “I’ll Be Home for Christmas.”
But the most common simplifying assumption seems to be a lack of treatment of rests— that is, only counting melodies consisting of a sequence of notes. Rests are an interesting wrinkle that complicates the counting problem: for example, a half note is different from two consecutive quarter notes of the same pitch, but a half rest sounds the same as two consecutive quarter rests. The objective of this post is to add this “expressive power” to the calculation of possible melodies.
Consider a single bar in 4/4 time, consisting of a sequence of whole, half, quarter, eighth, and sixteenth notes and/or rests, with notes chosen from 13 possible pitches, allowing melodies within an octave of the 12-pitch chromatic scale, but also allowing an octave jump (e.g., “Take Me Out to the Ball Game,” “Over the Rainbow,” etc.).
We can encode the choice of a single note of possible pitches with the following generating function, weighted by duration:
and all possible rests with
Then the generating function for the number of possible melodies is
Intuitively, a melody consists of zero or one rest, followed by a sequence of zero or more sub-sequences, each consisting of a note followed by zero or one rest. The coefficient is the number of one-bar melodies given the above constraints… but this counts two melodies as distinct even if they only differ in relative pitch. The number of possible melodies consisting of sequences of intervals confined to at most an octave jump is
where the +1 accounts for the single “silent melody” of a whole rest. The result is 3,674,912,999,046,911,152, or about 3.7 billion billion possible melodies.
The machinery described above may be easily extended to consider different sets of assumptions: different time signatures, longer or shorter lists of possible notes to choose from, dotted notes and rests, triplets (e.g., the Star Wars theme), etc. The figure below shows the number of possible one-bar melodies for a variety of such assumptions.
As might be expected, dotted notes and/or rests do not affect the “space” of possible melodies nearly as much as note duration: halve the shortest allowable note value, and you very roughly double the number of “bits” in the representation of a melody. If we extend our expressive power to allow 32nd (possibly dotted) notes and rests, then there are 6,150,996,564,625,709,162,647,180,518,925,064,281,006 possible melodies.
Of course, these calculations only address the question of how many melodies are possible— not how many of such melodies are actually appealing to our human ears.