Monthly Archives: December 2019

The hot hand

The wager described in the previous post was motivated by an interesting recent paper (Miller and Sanjurjo, reference below) discussing the hot hand, or the perception in some sports, particularly basketball, that a player with a streak of successful shots … Continue reading

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Gambler’s fallacy fallacy?

The gambler’s fallacy is the belief that roulette wheels, dice, etc., have “memory,” so that, for example, having observed an unlikely streak of losses, the probability that the next outcome will be a win has increased, as a correction toward … Continue reading

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